Iraq Situation Shows Tough Odds .. But Not Impossible

iraq situation


Statistically, the entire Iraq situation and the odds of a brighter future for the country over the next 10 years, with or without The United States intervention in any degree, ranges from not so probable to significantly unlikely according to a hybrid team of analysts.  A specialized analysis group using the same principles some experts use in predicting economics (such as predicting trends or changes to come in world markets etc.) called  behavioral economics, which places much more focus on the people in power, their emotions, and the current fundamentals of the situation at hand versus such standard practices based solely on numbers such as technical analysis.  This group, along with a team of Geo-political analysts have merged and spliced together the current odds concerning the future of Iraq with and without United States Intervention. Although there were several statistical forecasts, below is the hybrid teams three core odds forecasts concerning Iraq over the next ten years.

In taking into consideration the history of the region  (but only to a point), current conflicts world wide, and most importantly the situation in Iraq right now analysis  shows unfavorable odds for peace and political stability. Taking into consideration the sides involved, the degree of severity, progress made versus progress deduced, numbers, and lastly the region’s history doesn’t read something optimistic as far as having a stabilized government with general peace in the area. Below are the realistic odds involving strong, cautioned/reserved, and no intervention by the United States Military:

If the United States does once again strongly get involved militarily within Iraq’s multiple conflicts there is an 77% chance against both violence and governmental stability ever existing concurrently (meaning in getting the country stabilized over all, the scenario would still be 77% more an unlikely situation even with US Military action again). This means, if The Unites States Military gets strongly involved once more in the troubled territory, the odds of Iraq overcoming most non-religious related violence and obtaining a  strong, largely stable central government is still non-probable, in having only 23% probability of stabilization over a 10 year stretch.

If the United States gets involved in the Iraq situation using more caution. This type of military action means infiltrating, and taking action in a reserved manor, and only within certain boundaries. The odds are at 77% unlikely for the entire conflicting region to be considerably stable against 17% probability for over all strong stability/little violence.

By the same token without The United States intervention at all the odds of Iraq overcoming most violence, and maintaining a strong, undisputed central government over the next ten years is 91% in the red (meaning without United States Intervention  there is only a 9% chance of stability). Without military action in Iraq the odds of the country maintaining stabilization politically and from a nonviolent, non-confrontational aspect are much more than cut simply in half. In this zero United States Military involvement scenario, Iraq would have only a 9% probability of being considerably stabilized over a ten year span.

United States Military Intervention In Iraq Odds For Political Stabilization and General Peace Over 10 Years:

Reserved Military Involvement (measured, a conservative approach): 83% Unlikely / 17% Likely  = Unlikely

Strong Military Involvement: 77% Unlikely / 23% Likely  = Not Probable

No Military Involvement: 91% Unlikely / Likely 9%  = Not Probable to a Significantly High Degree.


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Posted by on Jun 26 2014. Filed under Latest Buzz. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

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